The Economic Effects of the Budget Deficit Policy in Algeria for the Period (1980-2020) -Quantitative Analytical Study- [in Arabic]

Abstract

     Through this research paper, we aim to do a standard analytical study of the macroeconomic effects of the budget deficit policy in Algeria for the period (1980-2020), in addition to analyzing the course and performance of the budget deficit policy in Algeria with an analysis of the response of economic variables to shocks in the budget balance. For this, the descriptive analytical approach and the standard approach were used, while the Autoregressive Rays (VAR) model was used, with the help of the Eviews12 program, to process the data.

      And it concluded that there is a one-way causality from the budget balance towards the external balance and from the economic growth rate, total domestic savings and private consumption spending towards the budget balance, while there is no causality between the budget balance and the variables: inflation rate, interest rate, fixed capital formation and total credit provided to the private sector. After assessing the relationship between the budget deficit and its economic effects, it was found that there is a positive impact of the budget balance on: private consumer spending, credit provided to the private sector, economic growth rate, interest rate, external balance, total domestic savings, while it was found that there is a negative impact of the budget balance on Fixed capital accumulation and inflation, which is the same as what was found through the analysis of variance.